A Drier Alaska: Our Scientists Identify the Areas to Be Hit Hard by Climate Change
Climate change may cause Alaska’s growing season to become about 80 percent drier by mid century, causing profound effects on wildlife, vegetation and human communities, according to new research conducted by our climate change analyst Brendan O’Brien, and ecologist Wendy Loya.
By the end of the century — or 2094 according to our estimates — that same growing season may become a whopping 200 percent drier in a state already impacted by climate change.
Our scientists made the projections after developing a tool to map changes in Alaska’s water availability in an effort to help land managers, scientists and others identify lands and species most vulnerable to change.
We found that as temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, Alaska’s growing season is projected to become warmer and drier with significantly more water leaving the landscape due to higher evaporation and transpiration rates than incoming precipitation.
To estimate changes in growing season water availability, we used forecasted temperature and precipitation data from Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) to calculate the difference between precipitation, and evaporation and transpiration over the next century.
After developing the tool, we determined that Alaska’s Western Arctic and Aleutian Meadows ecoregions are expected to undergo the most serious water shortages in the future, becoming roughly 250 percent and 120 percent drier by 2094, respectively.
The Western Arctic is home to hundreds of thousands of caribou which will undoubtedly be forced to adapt to these changes. If the historic migration of the herd is impacted, suffering may spread through the indigenous people who depend on the herd for their dietary needs and cultural heritage, as well as the commercial operators that provide services to caribou hunters.
The Aleutian Meadows region includes the Izembek National Wildlife Refuge. Increased water shortages in the Refuge will make life difficult for millions of migratory waterfowl that stop at the Refuge to seek food and shelter on their way to and from their arctic breeding grounds.
Already in Alaska, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation have had profound effects on regional hydrology, including shrinking wetlands, glacier and polar sea ice recession, permafrost melting, and an increase in fire frequency and intensity across the landscape as a result of increased drought and thunderstorms. In Alaska’s northern climate, most of the precipitation falls during winter months, when it accumulates in the snowpack and contributes to water storage across the landscape.
By supplying scientists, land managers, conservationists, and members of the public with a tool for understanding changes in future water availability, we’ll be better prepared to identify species, landscapes or communities that are particularly vulnerable to change. Once connections between the hydrologic characteristics of a region and the natural and cultural resources have been established, stakeholders can focus on developing the most effective measures to facilitate successful adaptation.
photos:
Caribou in Izembek National Wildlife Refuge. Photo by John Sarvis, Courtesy USFWS.
Canada Geese flying in Izembek Lagoon. Photo by John Sarvis, Courtesy USFWS.
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Sam Goldman
Sam has been with The Wilderness Society since Fall 2007. He came most recently from M+R Strategic Services in Washington, DC where he worked with national environmental groups to improve their online campaign work and field organizing capacity. Before that, Sam was the Assistant National Field Director for U.S. PIRG where he covered a variety of issues including the fight to protect the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
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Climate change
First, I would like to say a big Thank You for all the good you do!
I can already see the changes happening in my hometown with vegetation and animal species. I think its sad, so many people seem to be in denial about it all. I think its sad that our governments are unaware of the extent to which the climate change will effect the whole planet's inhabitants. Or they just don't really care.
However, I do believe, besides the effects we have been causing since "the dawning of agriculture", there is probably a natural rhythm of our planet that is happening too. Evidence of climate change has been found in ice cores and other sources indicating natural climate changes. For example, it appears something was happening about 5,000 years ago in the Sahara desert, a shift from a wetter period to a drier period. Plus, the changes happening about 10,000 years ago during the end of an ice age. Perhaps, there is something in the predictions of 2012 and the axis shift (which Nasa seems to admit and deny). It seems there could already be some kind of axis shift happening as the seasons already seem to be shifting.
At any rate, I think humankind needs to wake up and be more conscious of the way we live on our home planet.
I am an earthy person and when I try to share my insights with family and friends, I think, they think of me as a 'chicken little'. I'm not afraid. I wish tho, I had the means to dig into some wilderness area and become totally self-sufficient. I try to do the best I can.
An unemployed anthropologist desparatly seeking a means to survive.
Thank You!